SupremeAC said:I wouldn't count on it. The vaccin keeps you from getting terribly ill, but the virus can still stay alive and spread through vaccinated people. CDC studies state that the delta version is also highly contagious, with a person contaminating onaverag 8 to 9 others.
Don't confuse the vaccine not being 100% effective with it not doing anything to prevent infection. The efficacy isn't just hospitalization and death.
Results showed that following the second dose of vaccine (the recommended number of doses), risk of infection was reduced by 90 percent two or more weeks after vaccination.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html
And vaccinated people who do get infected are up to 78% less likely to spread the virus to household members than are unvaccinated people.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z
By reducing the likelihood of infection and spread, it can prevent the virus from multiplying to the point of eradication in an area of high vaccination rates. Herd immunity estimated are pretty rough, but are in the range of 70-85%. Now depending on where you are, there are reasons to be pessimistic about getting to that point, but still, getting close can have an enormous impact, and isn't necessarily the specific goal.
Delta is more transmissible, but that doesn't necessarily mean the virus mutation breaks through defenses more easily. A recent study, summarized in this Twitter thread suggests that it is due to having more virus in the body faster once infected, meaning it can spread earlier before symptoms. There really isn't anything about it that changes the outlook on the value of current vaccines (though it may shift herd immunity targets some). There is much more concern about future mutations the longer it takes to contain the virus worldwide.
The actual calculations are pretty simple, even if the execution isn't - the more people you vaccinate, the fewer people are infected, hospitalized, and killed. Vaccinate enough people, the virus goes away.
Again, though, there is a human problem that is the real difficulty. We have everything we need with vaccines, it's just getting the people there. Even without vaccines, New Zealand has had only 2900 cases and 26 deaths, but at the same time, sits around the world average for vaccination rates -- a paltry 14.5% fully vaccinated.
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Even going by the numbers you note there, the delta variant can still infect 1 person or more per infected person even when they are vaccinated. That's too high to be able to eradicate it.
And look at Israel. They got vaccinated very fast, yet now they're forced to take measures again due to the surge of infections with the delta variant.
Here in Belgium we're nearing 70% vaccination in adults, but the delta variant is also marching on with nearly 9 out of 10 infections coming from that corner.
I don't think we'll be able to take out covid-19, not any time soon at least. We might be able to get rid of it in a couple of decades though.
Measles is more contagious than COVID. Vaccine efficacy is similar. Number of cases were upwards of 4 million per year in the 50s before vaccinations in the US, yet was considered completely eradicated in 2000 (it has since had a resurgence because of antivaxxers and had ~1200 cases in 2019).
We agree that's not going to happen with COVID. I just disagree that's it's not possible with the current vaccines. I think the problem is people not getting it. We don't have to live with COVID season.
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobileI've tried looking up data on the measles specifically, but not much details are to be found. Can you still spread it when vaccinated? As for covid, 2% of those vaccinated still get ill, so that means even with 95% vaccination we'd still see thousands get ill per year in the US alone.
Yes, there are still breakthrough infections (it's not 100% effective), and if you're infected, you can spread it.
Your math is flawed which may explain where we're missing each other. If it is the case that currently 2% of those vaccinated get ill, that number changes over time based on the number of current cases, because the more cases, the more chances of getting ill. The vaccines reduce the chance of getting ill on exposure, so at a certain point, average number of people that an infected person spreads to is less than 1, and the disease dissipates.
This is a good explanation:
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobileAh maths. Now we're in for an endless debate. 
a recent CDC report puts the delta variant as being as contagious as the meassles, which is about 8 to 9 people infected per person that carries it.
Vaccination decreases the risk of severe illness by factor 10, but the risk of getting contaminated and thus being able to spread covid yourself only by factor 3 (the article doesn't refference the source, but this comes from the biggest national news outlet, not some hillbilly conspiracy site). That means that vaccinated people would still on average contaminate more than 1 other person, thus keeping the virus alive and kicking.
I fully understand how maths work Yoda, no need to patronizingly add in video's of herd immunity. If the above is true, vaccination won't help us get rid of covid-19, it'll just make the consequences less severe.
edit: also, nice new avatar image. 
robio said:
I work with an absolute moron, and unfortunately she's my assistant. The amount of energy and time she puts into diving into grossly incorrect information is maddening. All of her news seems to come from places that are banned on most social media. And yet, that's the correct stuff in her mind.
I think the main takeaway here is that you have an assistant. Does she get you coffee? I'd have to get my own coffee, if I actually drank coffee.
SupremeAC said:I fully understand how maths work Yoda, no need to patronizingly add in video's of herd immunity.
I'm not being patronizing, I just think that video was going to do a better job explaining than I would, which made sense since you didn't care for a more verbose "wall of text".
SupremeAC said:a recent CDC report puts the delta variant as being as contagious as the meassles, which is about 8 to 9 people infected per person that carries it.
Last I saw, delta was described as more transmissible than a lot of things, but not measles.
"Delta, now in at least 132 countries and already the dominant form of the disease in the United States, is more transmissible than the common cold, the 1918 Spanish flu, smallpox, Ebola, MERS and SARS, according to the document. Only measles appears to spread faster than the variant."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/delta-cdc-warns-variant-is-as-contagious-as-chickenpox-may-make-people-sicker.html
SupremeAC said:Vaccination decreases the risk of severe illness by factor 10, but the risk of getting contaminated and thus being able to spread covid yourself only by factor 3
There is still data to come in for delta and vaccine effectiveness so it could turn out less effective than previously found, particularly the change in effectiveness over time, but I haven't seen anything in the framing of factors, only efficacy and risk of infection, which has consistently been in the area of 90%.
"risk of infection was reduced by 90 percent two or more weeks after vaccination."
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0329-COVID-19-Vaccines.html
At any rate this is a pointless conversation, given I've said multiple times that in practice we agree that it's going to be like this for a long time regardless of why.
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Tell me to get back to rewriting this site so it's not horrible on mobileAs for walls of text, I adore them, I just don't get around to writing them myself anymore.
Edit: also my bad, they didn't say as contagious as the measles. It was some form of pox. I got confused translating all the diseases.
A pox on you for this state of confusion, then!
I try to stay even keel on most things. I have my beliefs and I don't waiver on them but I never shoved them in peoples face. But now we here we are again, this damn virus is spreading worse than ever after we got the solution. The only damn reason we aren't stamping it out is because some damn people are nuts and don't want a free safe vaccine. They love to shove it in everyone's face, they cry "my freedom" when ever someone suggests a vaccine mandate. I am done, I am pissed off, I am infuriated over all of it. Tie that to the last four years of trump shit, and now this, you just want to scream.
Another big outbreak for the first anniversary of the last one. First very strict (level 4) lockdown since early last year. At least people my age can get the vaccine starting on the 25th now instead of October now that they've prioritised maximising first doses over full vaccinations.
By Miu Watanabe.
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So that's great news huh?
On the bright side, you live in an American city with clean water.
robio said:So covid is getting so bad in Orlando that the city is now asking residents to conserve water so that we can preserve liquid oxygen. Liquid O2 is used to help keep our water clean, but it's also used to treat covid patients.
So that's great news huh?
In soviet russia water is used to keep liquid 02 clean.
Yakov Smirnov, timeless.
Té_Rojo said:Another big outbreak for the first anniversary of the last one. First very strict (level 4) lockdown since early last year. At least people my age can get the vaccine starting on the 25th now instead of October now that they've prioritised maximising first doses over full vaccinations.
How many deaths/ cases prompted the lockdown?
aspro said:How many deaths/ cases prompted the lockdown?
One case was announced in the early afternoon of Tuesday and lockdown started at midnight. Four days later there are more than 50 known cases and they've visited places such as schools, universities, clubs, shopping centres and crowded events. Clearly the virus is trying to get its revenge on New Zealand.
By Miu Watanabe.
Kiwi-power will prevail.
If only I weren't here from New Zealand to say the vaccination rate is even lower than Australia's. I think I'm due in October or November. Fortunately, life here has been normal since practically October.
By Miu Watanabe.